THE DAILY BRIEFING

Business briefing — October 12, 2026.

The stories that matter. The context you need.

INDEPENDENT PERSPECTIVEFree to read.
Every day.

Business

Your briefing

October 12, 20266 min read

AI-assisted briefingHow we put it together ↗

AT A GLANCE

ASIC proposes keeping Australia's CFD protections in force through 2037 and extending their coverage to digital-asset settlement.
Kraken has completed Dubai's licensing process and plans to launch UAE services in the coming weeks; derivatives require further approval.
Coinbase and Robinhood's futures units held $581.4 million in client funds in August, exceeding US retail forex balances, although the customer populations are not directly comparable.

Brent Holds Near $104 as Shipping Risks Offset Prospects for More Fuel Supply

Brent traded around $104 a barrel on Monday, after briefly reaching $105.48 late Sunday, according to figures cited in the report. Houthi strikes hit Riyadh’s airport and a drone struck a tanker near Oman, but Saudi oil exports were not reported disrupted; the report says expectations for Russian diesel supply and a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” weighed in the other direction. UKMTO had not publicly identified who launched the drone, and the tanker crew’s status was still being assessed.

What changed Brent surrendered its late-Sunday rise to $105.48 and returned to around $104 on Monday, rather than sustaining a rally after the attacks.

Why it matters For oil shippers, repeated tanker attacks can raise freight and insurance bills even before physical supply is interrupted.

What to watch next Whether Washington joins Saudi retaliation against the Houthis remains an open question, not an announced military action.

FinanceFeeds ↗

Citadel Securities’ UK Market-Making Profit Fell 38% in 2025

Citadel Securities (Europe) Limited reported 2025 profit of $29.2 million, down 38.3% from a year earlier, while total income fell 18.7% to $252.5 million. Its directors attributed the decline to lower trading volumes in core markets and spending on new strategies. The parent contributed $100 million in fresh capital after receiving a $100 million dividend from the UK unit in 2024; the separate UK proprietary-trading arm reported a 25% rise in profit to $1.01 billion.

What changed The unit paid no dividend in 2025, reversing the previous year's $100 million distribution, and instead received an equal-sized capital contribution.

Why it matters The parent is now supplying capital to a UK unit that previously distributed cash, tying up more shareholder funding to meet the business's capital needs.

What to watch next Execution of the planned China subsidiary and sterling fixed-income expansion remains unresolved; both initiatives were already in the previous year's accounts.

Finance Magnates ↗

IG Chief Questions Whether Prediction-Market Volume Figures Reflect Revenue

IG Group chief executive Breon Corcoran argued that prediction-market companies’ notional trading volumes are difficult to assess economically and said investors should focus on net gaming revenue. He noted that a small stake in a multi-leg parlay can generate a much larger notional figure, while Underdog reported third-quarter net revenue of $105 million, up 118% year on year. IG agreed to pay $1.1 billion upfront for Underdog, with up to $200 million more tied to 2026 revenue.

What changed Underdog's stronger third quarter benefited partly from World Cup activity and comparison with unusually weak margins a year earlier, qualifying how its growth should be read.

Why it matters IG shareholders would gain substantially greater exposure to US customers and prediction-related revenue, making the economics behind reported trading activity more consequential for the group.

What to watch next IG is scheduled to present a strategy update for its existing business in London on October 22.

Finance Magnates ↗

ASIC Proposes Extending Australian CFD Rules Through 2037

Australia’s ASIC proposed extending its product intervention order for contracts for difference by 10 years, subject to ministerial approval, and broadening its coverage to CFDs settled in digital assets or by set-off. The draft would also require separate initial-margin calculations for each CFD, preventing opposing positions from being netted, and set margin rules for CFDs over options. ASIC said retail-account net losses fell 91% within six months of the current order, but its latest data showed 12-month losses above A$458 million, including A$73 million in fees.

What changed The proposal would replace the current May 2027 expiry with protection lasting until 2037, subject to ministerial approval and possible earlier revocation.

Why it matters Retail clients holding offsetting CFD positions would still have to fund each position's initial margin separately, removing the funding benefit of netting long and short exposures.

What to watch next Ministerial approval remains outstanding; the draft specifies that changes would take effect the day after registration on the Federal Register of Legislation.

Finance Magnates ↗

Kraken Receives Final Dubai Approval and Plans UAE Launch

Kraken parent Payward received Full Market Approval from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, completing the licensing process and allowing it to begin onboarding UAE clients, the company said. The planned launch includes spot and margin trading with dirham-denominated pairs, local-currency deposits and withdrawals, and staking for retail users; institutional clients are set to receive OTC spot trading and Kraken Prime. Derivatives and additional yield products are planned for later, subject to regulatory approval.

What changed May's preliminary authorization allowed Payward to build local operations but barred client onboarding; final approval clears that licensing barrier.

Why it matters UAE customers would gain direct dirham deposits, withdrawals and trading pairs, reducing their need to fund Kraken accounts through another currency.

What to watch next Kraken plans to start serving UAE clients in the coming weeks. Later derivatives offerings remain conditional on regulatory approval.

Finance Magnates ↗

Anthropic’s Reported IPO Timetable Awaits a Public SEC Filing

Anthropic is reportedly preparing an October 14 meeting with selected institutional investors, with a possible November IPO timetable, but the company has not confirmed the event or dates and its confidential S-1 is not yet publicly available on EDGAR. The report says SEC rules generally require a public registration statement at least 15 days before a formal roadshow; a roadshow starting November 9 would point to a late-October filing. Anthropic has not announced an IPO valuation or offering terms, and reported valuation targets remain unconfirmed.

What changed The reported marketing timetable has moved from around mid-October to a possible roadshow in the week of November 9, without company confirmation.

Why it matters Prospective retail investors still lack a public registration statement for assessing Anthropic's finances and risks; institutional meetings do not close that disclosure gap.

What to watch next A public S-1 is the next documentary checkpoint. If a November 9 roadshow proceeds, the source's 15-day calculation points to a late-October filing; neither event is confirmed.

FinanceFeeds ↗

Coinbase and Robinhood Futures Units Hold More Client Funds Than US Retail Forex Dealers

Coinbase Financial Markets and Robinhood Derivatives held a combined $581.4 million in segregated customer funds at the end of August, exceeding the $470 million owed to clients by six US retail forex dealers, according to an analysis of CFTC filings. The two firms’ futures balances had risen from $40.3 million two years earlier, and crossed the retail-forex total in January 2026. The comparison covers all futures clients at those firms, not only crypto traders, while the forex figure covers retail customers.

What changed Combined client funds at the two futures brokers rose from $40.3 million to $581.4 million over two years. This measures growth in their licensed futures channels, not crypto-only customer balances.

Why it matters For firms seeking to offer leveraged retail crypto purchases in the US, the proposed framework makes access to an FCM or its sponsored bank consequential; an offshore brokerage licence alone would not qualify.

What to watch next Comments on the CFTC notice close December 14. Whether margin-setting should sit with clearing houses or the NFA remains unresolved.

Finance Magnates ↗

You’re up to speed.Permalink ↗More business briefings →

Loading your briefing…

Business briefing — October 12, 2026.

Your briefing

Brent Holds Near $104 as Shipping Risks Offset Prospects for More Fuel Supply

Citadel Securities’ UK Market-Making Profit Fell 38% in 2025

IG Chief Questions Whether Prediction-Market Volume Figures Reflect Revenue

ASIC Proposes Extending Australian CFD Rules Through 2037

Kraken Receives Final Dubai Approval and Plans UAE Launch

Anthropic’s Reported IPO Timetable Awaits a Public SEC Filing

Coinbase and Robinhood Futures Units Hold More Client Funds Than US Retail Forex Dealers

Make room for a smarter morning.

Business briefing — October 12, 2026.

Your briefing

Brent Holds Near $104 as Shipping Risks Offset Prospects for More Fuel Supply

Citadel Securities’ UK Market-Making Profit Fell 38% in 2025

IG Chief Questions Whether Prediction-Market Volume Figures Reflect Revenue

ASIC Proposes Extending Australian CFD Rules Through 2037

Kraken Receives Final Dubai Approval and Plans UAE Launch

Anthropic’s Reported IPO Timetable Awaits a Public SEC Filing

Coinbase and Robinhood Futures Units Hold More Client Funds Than US Retail Forex Dealers

Make room for a smarter morning.