World affairs briefing — October 13, 2026.

IMF projects Middle East and Central Asia contraction as Hormuz disruption hits trade

The IMF has forecast that the Middle East and Central Asia economy will contract by 0.3% in 2026, reversing its earlier growth outlook as conflict-related disruption to energy production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz weighs on activity. It projects contractions of 7.6% in Iran, 16% in Iraq, 16.7% in Kuwait and 15.6% in Qatar; Oman is forecast to grow 2.4%. The Fund expects 6.3% regional growth in 2027 if the strait reopens and trade flows recover, while warning that the outlook depends on the conflict and shipping disruption.

What changed The IMF has replaced its earlier expectation of regional growth in 2026 with a forecast contraction of 0.3%.

Why it matters Access to alternative export routes is cushioning Oman’s economy, illustrating why the shipping disruption is imposing uneven costs across Gulf producers.

What to watch next Whether Hormuz reopens and energy exports normalize remains unresolved; the projected 2027 rebound is conditional, not an assured recovery.

UN verifies 1,076 Palestinian deaths in Gaza during ceasefire period

The UN Human Rights Office in the Occupied Palestinian Territory said it verified 1,076 Palestinian deaths in Gaza between October 2025 and the end of July 2026, including 268 children and 126 women. In a report released Monday, it said medical sources had recorded more than 1,400 deaths since the ceasefire was announced on October 10, 2025. The office warned that continued Israeli attacks during the ceasefire raise serious concerns about possible war crimes.

Why it matters Children account for roughly one-quarter of the verified deaths, underscoring that the ceasefire period has not provided reliable protection for Gaza’s youngest residents.

EU launches three-year security support mission in Lebanon

The EU Council established the EU Support Mission in Lebanon with an initial three-year mandate, aiming to strengthen the country’s defence and security institutions and support stability and sovereignty. The mission will focus on building the capabilities of the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces, as well as maritime-security governance. The council said the work would be in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

Why it matters Lebanon’s military and internal security forces are the intended beneficiaries, making institutional capacity and maritime governance—not a reported combat deployment—the mission’s stated focus.

Sudan orders inquiry into reported killing of 72 miners near Egyptian border

Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council Chairman Abdel Fattah al-Burhan ordered a fact-finding committee to investigate the reported killing of miners near the Egyptian border on Saturday. The council said the committee would include prosecution, judicial and security representatives and report its findings, but gave no deadline. Burhan said uncovering the facts and protecting citizens were state responsibilities.

Why it matters For those affected by the reported killings, the order creates a formal fact-finding process involving prosecutors and judicial bodies, but it does not yet establish responsibility or promise prosecutions.

What to watch next The committee is to submit its findings; no reporting deadline has been announced.

Demolitions displace about 400 people in Negev Palestinian village

Israeli authorities demolished about 80 homes in Al-Dhahiya, an unrecognized Palestinian village in the Negev, displacing around 400 people, according to the report. Israel’s public broadcaster KAN said the demolitions were carried out on the grounds that the homes lacked permits, after a court rejected a petition to delay them. The report also relayed accusations that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was using demolitions for election campaigning.

What changed The court rejected a postponement request on Sunday; authorities carried out the demolitions on Monday.

Why it matters Around 400 residents have lost their homes, turning the permit dispute into an immediate displacement crisis rather than solely a legal contest over construction.

Iran’s IRGC says third tanker struck in Strait of Hormuz in two days

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said a third supertanker was struck and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, after allegedly ignoring warnings and switching off its navigation system. The statement did not identify the vessel, its flag or operator, or explain how it was hit. The IRGC warned commercial vessels and oil tankers against cooperating with the US military in the strait.

Why it matters If confirmed, a tanker fire would demonstrate a direct threat to vessels transiting Hormuz, beyond delays or restrictions on passage.

What to watch next The vessel’s identity, flag, operator and the means by which it was struck remain unresolved, limiting assessment of the IRGC’s account.